by Scott Ehrlich, Cal Expo announcer
Cal Expo track announcer Scott Ehrlich offers his picks for both the $20,000 guaranteed Early Pick-4 and the $10,000 guaranteed Late Pick-4 at Cal Expo on Dec. 1, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.
Cal Expo Early Pick-4, Races 2-5, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011
$1 play: 4/12346/146/1236 = $60
Analysis:
Race 2: (4) Shoot The Works got a perfect trip, found his best foot in the last sixteenth where he was better than even in a fast mile. Gets Plano back and they dominated in the previous. Solid chance and they appear to be a single. (1) Yiannoulas Boy was outkicked out of the same race as the above, but he prefers to close. Figures the perfect trip tonight, but tracked the top choice two back and was no match. Needs his very best to turn the tables. (5) Serious Art closed/raced fine while three-wide the final 5-16ths-plus. He’s better than he looks, plus Wojcio took him over the 6, but he figures first-over into my top two choices.
Race 3: (4) D Man was overmatched. Been off two weeks, plus Lackey chose the 6, but drops to the level of his last two wins where he was value both times, plus he gets Wojcio. More than an ordinary chance if fit and if he avoids a duel in a toughie. (2) Cherry Tree Nicole changed tactics, had a testy lead before yielding for the pocket to the final turn and won nicely. Absolutely can repeat. (6) Twice The Ruckus tried hard on a closer’s bias (only four of 15 won on the front). Lackey’s choice and they don’t have to be on the lead; give strong consideration. I’d spread in this trot to (1) Cobina who had no room at the wire with trot. Also use (3) Dudis Angel who got shuffled, angled across the track at the 7/8s to be six-wide and did come on.
Race 4: (4) Lil Hope was way back in the fog, but was better than even in the lane from a no chance spot. Drops to the level of her last win, was written into the race, plus Wiseman took her over the 2 and 5. My vote. (6) Feetdon’tfailmenow got a perfect pocket trip to the winner and was no match. Figures here. (1) Goose Lips followed the 6, gapped that foe midway through the final turn, then was better than even in the lane and did narrow the gap. Has a chance to out-close these off a good trip. In this race, (2) Whistle Britches could very well be the favorite, bet against him!
Race 5: (1) Stanza comes off a super effort in which his numbers are out of this world. Great shot from the pole. (2) Marlin Hanover defeated the top choice in his last and it was no doubt a solid victory in a very fast mile, but the 1 did more work. Nevertheless, can easily repeat. (6) Cycle Power had a nice rally after getting shuffled to last. Takes an important drop and was written into the race, plus he may be the best horse here and has beaten the best on the grounds. If he leaves and goes down the road, he for sure can never look back. If he ducks, however, then he’s at the mercy of turn issues he has in the final turn. (3) One And Only can be used because he figures to get a very good trip following my top two choices. That trip and his good late kick could possibly see him catch these.
Cal Expo Late Pick-4, Races 6-9, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011
$1 play: 2/6/367/9 = $3
Analysis:
Race 6: (2) Sterling Chris moved three-wide to the fastest three-quarters of the night, quickly made the lead very late in the final turn and there’d be no catching him in a race that shaped up for him, but he still knew what to do with what was handed to him. In shape pacer looks too tough to beat. (3) King Carver powered into the lead to the midway point of the final turn and won nicely. Class rise tests his “mettle,” but it’s a small field. Why not? (1) Leadmeastray kicked it in in the last 16th where he was better than even in a fast mile. This field has less depth, give thought. (5) Fork In The Road had a pretty decent rally while never a factor. Concern is that he has turn trouble. Small field helps. Player if not too far back.
Race 7: (6) Live A Little closed very nicely in a very fast mile to defeat a horse who had never lost in a Sire Stakes in two years (10 in a row), and his numbers out of the race are giant. Faces older, but easier. Huge chance and looks like a single. (5) Spoons was even once yielding to the place horse to the final turn out of the same race as the above, but had been better in his previous two. Figures with his best, but behind the 6 off his last. (1) Badger Creek was game to beat the 5 while better than even in the lane. He can be right there with a good trip. Should you wish to not single the 6, you could continue to spread by using the (2) Bewareofthisaffair who closed nicely after getting shuffled. (3) Happyagain Mindale finishes nicely every week and always better than looks. (7) Tequila On Ice gets Wojcio who put the mark on this horse on Oct. 20. That mile gives them a fine shot.
Race 8: (3) Aston Boko had a fairly decent rally in an improved mile. Drops to the level of his last win, moves inside, plus Wojcio took him over the 2 and 4. He’s the one to beat, but he can make a break. (6) Style Element got a pocket trip, but didn’t pull at the three-quarters when the winner did, then came on in the lane with no chance to catch the winner who had the ‘go’ on her, but still may not have won anyway had she pulled. She can win here, especially if my top choice doesn’t mind his manners. (7) Thatssomebracciola nicely beat state-bred sophomores. Takes on older boys from the seven hole, but still should be given thought. (4) Carpathian Hooray often takes money and disappoints. Bet against him.
Race 9: (9) Vantage closed fine to be a good second and was first-over from past the half to the five-eighths. Drew outside, but these are a lot easier, plus she was written into the race. Simply has to leave and get a smooth seat and she’ll win. Should you wish to spread, (5) Drawing Dead did close nicely, but into a slow final quarter in a very slow mile. The 2-year-old filly faces tougher and older. Her best chance to repeat is if the 9 doesn’t leave and thus has position issues. (3) Diva Las Vegas got the early money, fired out, yielded, moved three-wide late in the final turn, was quick to the lead, then held on, but into a slow final quarter in a slow mile. Another freshman facing tougher and older, and she has been off 13 days. Also needs the 9 to not leave. Both (1) Major Marcus and (2) Dream U Fool are players, but here are two more 2-year-olds facing tougher and older.
Good luck!