by Bill Eichenberger
Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $7,500 guaranteed Pick-4 at Maywood Park on Dec. 1, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.
Maywood Park Pick 4, Races 8-11, Dec. 1, 2011
$1 play: 13/14/234/13 = $24
Analysis:
Race 8: (1) Don’tmakemelaugh is the prohibitive early morning favorite at 2-1. The 6-year-old mare hasn’t been in the money since an early September trip in 1:54.3, easily the fastest mile paced by any other horse in the field. Three of these ladies have yet to find the winner’s circle in 2011 and they’re running out of time. (4) Allamerican Virgin is the natural second choice (3-1) though one would have to read all the way back in the program to August to find a couple of races where she’d finished as high as third. The class drop from $5,000 to $3,200 should help. (3) Banjoe Hotspur has been the best horse most recently of any in the field, posting a victory in an impressive 1:56.4 after roaring from the eight post and leading at every call.
Race 9: (4) Rich N Fancy has made money in every one of her races this year. The caveat? She’s only raced three times. So, not much of a track record to go on, but she’s much the best in this group: fastest mile by a full two seconds; best speed rating in the last race; highest winning percentage, etc. Of course, we’re talking here about a field of 2-and 3-year-old, so inexperience is the operative word. (2) A Piece Of Diana is coming off a win in 1:59.2 and has been in the money in eight of 14 on the campaign. (1) Inside Scoop is racing for the first time in her life after qualifying last week in a blistering 1:58.3. Intriguing.
Race 10: (2) Lola’s Park has seven solid miles in her last 10. Alas, the other three miles, all in the last 30 days, were dismal seventh place finishes, two by 10 lengths. Is she fading at the end of a long season? Or are all those firsts, seconds and thirds from the fall just around the corner again? The morning line suggests the latter: she’s at 2-1. An OK mare in a competitive field. All eight Standardbreds are capable of pacing in 1:57 or 1:58. Notice, we said “capable,” not “likely.” All things being equal, let’s throw out the 7 and 8 posts as having too much to overcome. (3) Melody Hotspur has to be in our reckoning as she won the last time out (albeit in 1:59.2) and consistently paces sub-2:00 miles. (6) Sporty Pants is the mirror image of Melody Hotspur minus the recent victory. Doubtful that (4) Chickiechickiewawa has a shot but it’d be a shame not to even mention a horse with such a great name! Upon further inspection, though, no other in the field has had as hot a stretch as Chickie in late July and early August with wins in 1:55 and 1:56.
Race 11: (8) Epona is the best horse here in the worst spot. (Only 6.8 percent win from the 8 post at Maywood.) She’s coming off an impressive place in 1:57.3 and has the highest speed rating (75) of any here in her last race. She also has the best earnings per start at $607. (6) Delightful Dot has not paced well of late but is dropping significantly in class. (3) Im A Sally Sue is coming off back to back wins but likely will have to improve on her 1:59s to compete here. She’s certainly capable of doing so: her season best is 1:54.1 at Balmoral Park. (1) Four Major Titles came from off the pace in her last race, making a move from ninth to finish third with a final quarter of :28.4. She is in the best form of any filly or mare in the field.