by Bob Carson

Editor’s Note: The USTA website is pleased to present freelance writer Bob Carson and his popular “Outside the Box” features. This monthly series is a menu of outlandish proposals presented with a wink — but the purpose behind them is serious. The views contained in this column are that of the author alone, and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of the United States Trotting Association.

“You can’t make a program without broken egos.”

Bob Carson

This summer in San Rafael, Calif., the Pitch F/X System was used in a professional baseball game. Balls and strikes were determined using computer programs and technology. In case you have been asleep for a few years, the grand old game already has decisions on the field subject to review from an office in New York. Computer analysis, cyber metrics and data mining have long been used for drafting, signing, and paying players. Data analysis determines schedules, advertising, ticket prices and most business decisions.

In harness racing, we may not agree on many things, but only a fool could refute the idea that the computer and data analysis have radically changed the world.

At a recent conclave of harness horse people, Murray Brown, noted harness racing maven, spoke with the subtlety of a chain saw in a church and suggested that our product could use improvement. Heads nodded in agreement. Eric Cherry, David Reid and Mark Loewe chimed in on the very sensible theme that survival and growth in the world of harness horse racing depends on gamblers and revenue.

Of course, they are correct. Our first, and constant, mission must be to maximize revenue; to do so will require that we improve our product and continue to keep improving our product. Individual opinions mean little. Arguing does nothing. Data, driven by our customers, can do plenty.

Autumn Ryan graphic

Ergo this plan; a plan that will make many of our races more competitive, be cost effective, ensure full fields, have built in flexibility, and avoid prohibitive longshots or prohibitive favorites. The plan is based on pure data.

Handle is very quantifiable and will be the engine. In addition, we are a sport rife with additional data in the areas of racing and breeding. Harness racing has plenty of rudimentary data; we need to utilize it with ruthless efficiency. Let’s get started.

Welcome to the PORT.

One important caveat: the PORT does not apply to stakes racing or invitational type races. Those races are fine; we love them, bet them and watch them. Stakes and top tier racing are the heartbeat for hardcore fans and breeders. The PORT is for our treadmill of endless condition and claiming races.

PORT is an acronym for Pool of Racehorse Talent. In the PORT, traditional condition sheets are no longer required. Connections simply enter a horse into the PORT (say….Batavia Downs, race date Oct. 16). You enter four days prior to the race date. Let us say 96 horses enter in Batavia.

This database, with these 96 horses, is sent to an unknown location that hosts the PORT headquarters. Here a team of programmers will enter the possible participants into a computer program. The data importers will also take the available purse for that night, let’s say it is $100,000, and distribute the purses as data mandates (the faster performers will continue to race for the higher purses, the slower horses will race for much smaller purses).

The PORT computer program, like a mysterious Wizard of Oz (or perhaps Wizard of Odds), will be tasked with the goal of digesting the data and spitting out a card of races that are ultra competitive. Compared to complex programming like self driving cars and Google glasses — devising competitive and cost effective horse race programs will be child’s play.

Like all complex programs, countless algorithms will be in play and will be adjusted on a regular basis. The projected performance of each horse will no doubt be the major factor. Post positions within each race will be assigned to further insure competitiveness.

However, in analytical data processing of this sort, there are hundreds of additional factors that go into constructing each program, all data driven and ever in flux to improve the product.

A few of the new factors will make eyebrows raise and traditionalists reach for poison pens and pills — but the bottom line is this — the PORT is not for horsemen; it is designed to create wagering opportunities that inspire gamblers to watch and wager. Reformation and reconstruction are for the customer. The new paradigm is to make each race more exciting and result in a thrilling blanket finish where the “so close” psychology comes into play.

The PORT is a different world. Claiming races are out — if you wish to move a horse, do it privately or online, but remember “change in ownership” may (or may not) be an algorithm factor. Programmers are free to mix trotters, pacers, and sexes to create races where every entrant has a chance at winning.

PORT horses deemed non-competitive (either too fast or too slow) will be notified immediately to try the next date or another racetrack. Should there be a large surplus of PORT entries, those entries will most likely receive preference in the next race. Abnormal performances will be noted, factored in, and adjusted for, nothing personal, just looking for that race where every horse finishes within a foot of the wire.

PORT programmers do not care about horsemen, at least not directly; they care about creating unbelievably competitive races and making our races more exciting and playable. They care about increasing revenue. Any complaining will be a waste of time as you are dealing with computers and programmers, they have reasons for doing what they do, reasons that rely on cold hard numbers.

As for the racetracks, they open the PORT and are free of the responsibility of creating races. They can turn their attention to policing the backstretch and promoting the product. Those technicians toiling away at PORT headquarters will suggest additional changes based on data; things like number of races, take-out adjustment, scheduling, field size, and dozens of tweaks to improve our product and our cash flow.

The cost of the PORT project will be relatively small, beginning with a staff of a half dozen people. They can work from anywhere. They barely require infrastructure, they just need computers, databases, algorithms, analytic technicians and a mission. A few PORT people will understand harness racing and act as advisors, but most of the decision makers will be hard core coders, data analytic staff and programmers. After they strengthen the core product, they will turn to new digital horizons for recruitment and growth, always based on data.

Now we turn to the portion of our show where many an idea flounders on the shoals.

“Who is going to pay for the PORT?” A prototype project to design the first program could be financed by the USTA out of our dues. A stand-alone fundraising effort would also be a possibility. Good programmers could be lured and employed for no upfront money, instead, they would receive a minuscule slice of potentially massive wagering growth (silicon valley players are gamblers just like harness race people). A miniscule fraction of casino revenue could be allocated toward funding because the improved gambling product at their sites could prove beneficial. One of these, or several in combination, could fund the PORT.

“How do we make everybody participate?” We don’t have to. Any state or track can enter the PORT voluntarily or stay away voluntarily. The entire enterprise rests on data. If one racetrack signs up for the PORT and they show an increase in handle, others will follow. If the handle does not improve, they won’t. It’s all about money and data.

“Be specific.” Find a track, or tracks, willing to participate. Create a group with a few racing secretaries and someone like David Carr from the USTA to meet with a data analytic firm. Make a deal or partner with one. Gather all the data from their racing over the past three years (handle, field size, times, temperature, trainers, purses, post positions, etc.). Build the first PORT program. Begin beta testing.

“What’s in it for me?” Salvation of our ancient sport in a digital world, a world where hundreds of people work each day on a single video game prototype or countless designers are writing code for online gambling products waiting to explode. Transition to a data based sport/product that is driven by markets and numbers, instead of factions, traditions and the winds of fate. A business where consumers tell racetracks what type of product they will wager on. A sport/gamble where players let their money move our market instead of forcing races upon them and demonstrating little capacity to move the market.

Let us be bold. High tech savants using data and analytics in the PORT could offer shelter from the gathering gambling storms.