by “Catskill” Steve Terjanian

Catskill Steve offers his picks for the $20,000 Pick-4 at Balmoral Park on September 13, part of the U.S. Trotting Association Strategic Wagering Program.

Balmoral Park Pick-4, Races 11-14, Saturday, September 13, 2014

$1 play: 510/36/210/48 = $16

Analysis:

Race 11: It’s the biggest night of the year for Chicago standardbreds as the best square off on Super Night. Reminder tonight’s Pick-4 encompasses races 11-14 with a guaranteed $50,000 on the line. (5) Let’s Go Higher and (10) Party Hangover look the best in here and will be favored. The former shipped to Balmoral and crushed her elimination field when able to get away with a slow first half. Gets a position edge on her main rival but will have to go faster tonight. The later would be the top choice from a better post. She’s been a model of consistency all year and was used twice in her elimination and finished second in mile that went two-fifths of a second faster than top one. Draws post 10 but Warren should be able to secure an early seat and is clearly the main threat.

Race 12: (3) Dabestleaderever never fired in torrid 1:50.4 mile against tougher last time. Two back left and tucked from post seven, unleashed a second move brushing to the top with :55.3 middle half to draw off against slightly lesser field at Maywood. The fast 7-year-old drops to that level and the level of last Balmoral win, a 1:51.4 mile back in July, and finds a good spot to use his sharp brush. (6) No Fear No Doubt was used hard early and forced to take back, sat in and never got close but did manage to finish in :27.1. The 5-year-old has the most wins of any in here, drops to his best level and is the one to beat with likely better trip.

Race 13: (10) Engine One O One erratic sort has the most ability of any in here but don’t know if he will be able to stay flat from post 10. Big edge if he does. I will back that one up with (2) The Big Sleazy who grinded uncovered a long way last time and excusably tired through 1:25 final three–quarters. Gets driver switch to Warren and looks to have a big shot, especially if top one miscues.

Race 14: Although I don’t like to take favorites in every race, (4) Earndawg looks best. The 2-year-old was 8-3/4 from fourth-over, exploded down the lane finishing in :26.4 to roll by, his second straight win and second sub 27-second final quarter. For a price I’ll try (8) Dakota Roadster who I’ve been following in recent weeks. This one raced well off a sick scratch last time finishing well but unable to hold off top one’s furious finish. Two back went first-up off a slow pace and paced a :55.2 final half to hold show. Seems to be getting better with every race and may be ready to put it all together.