by Scott Ehrlich, Cal Expo announcer

Scott Ehrlich offers his picks for the $10,000 Late Pick-4 at Cal Expo on Dec. 8, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Cal Expo Late Pick-4, Races 6-9, Thursday, Dec. 8, 2011

$1 play: 1246/3/2348/234 = $48

Analysis:

Race 6: (1) Giles L S Hanover raced fine in a race that collapsed to be second, but after leaving and pushing the pace hard in the first three-sixteenths in the fastest quarter of the night. Takes an important drop, plus Wiseman took him over the 6. Horse to beat. (4) Twice The Ruckus showed no moves until angling to the seven-eighths, then finally got going late and had a good gain, but the slowest three-quarters of the night by two seconds helped. Plano drives tonight and he took him over (7) Meringue. If this trotter races back to his previous, then he figures strongly. (6) Cherry Tree Nicole made a very costly break at the start, was 25 lengths behind the field in the first turn, caught the field by the half, but the fast second quarter recovery took its toll. Her solid previous two indicate she’s more than capable with a flat mile. (2) Dudis Angel got a perfect trip to (5) Cobina and was better than even in a fast final quarter. May get another perfect trip if Giles L S Hanover goes down the road, figures.

Race 7: (3) Phantom Dan was on the move very late in the final turn with three lengths to cover while too far back, gained and was brushing very nicely at mid-stretch and would close nicely with good pace on the wire with the whip over Kennedy’s shoulder in an eye-catching close that may have been hidden, plus he had a lot of ‘go’ after the race as Kennedy kept going with him. Love him here as my single in the Pick-4.

Race 8: (8) Glad To Be Back moved three-wide very late in the final turn and was better than even until very late when Wojcio stopped urging when a check wasn’t possible in a needed mile. Drops and has been second to better, plus Wojcio took him over the 4. Can overcome with position. (4) Tequila On Ice had a decent rally in a fast mile and maybe would have had a better rally had he been steerable in the lane. Was used early in his previous, got pushed back late in the final turn, was free at mid-stretch and found his best foot late, but the wire came up. Could be better than looks. Consider. (2) Bewareofthisaffair was pushed back pretty badly in the lane, was free late with no chance and wasn’t empty. Closed nicely in her previous after getting shuffled. Has excuses the last two and Kennedy took her over the 3, merits attention. (3) Heartbrake Ridge set a good clip like she would be good, but faltered in the night’s fastest mile on a closer’s bias. Pushed the first seven-sixteenths in her previous into a fast half, then was blocked until just to the wire with pace. Now off 20 days and facing the boys, but Plano took her over the 4 and (5) No Kisses Knowmore, certainly fits if fit.

Race 9: (2) Aston Boko broke a 16th to the start and lagged 10-12 lengths, caught the field fast, was first-over a bit in the second quarter until third-over, but had horrible cover. Went back inside past the five-eighths and closed/raced fine in a race where his break easily could have cost him the win. Has more than an ordinary chance, but makes breaks and will have to qualify if he does tonight. (4) Winsom Kelly was first-over to the three-quarters, and soon exploded past (8) Carpathian Hooray to close nicely with trot to spare to win easily. Been off 13 days, but it had been a long time for him with a week off anyway. Bonafide shot. (3) Style Element was first-over past the five-eighths and closed/won nicely, but while the 2 and the place horse had bad cover. Regardless, can repeat.