by Scott Ehrlich, Cal Expo announcer

Scott Ehrlich offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick-4 at Cal Expo on Nov. 10, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Cal Expo Pick-4, Races 6-9, Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011

$1 play: 16/137/1245/27 = $48

Analysis:

Race 6: (6) Amigo De Garcia followed the winner and was no match, but raced fine into a fast final-quarter in the night’s fastest mile. Plano has driven him four times with three wins (lifetime mark) and a second. Solid shot. (1) Western Hurricane was outclosed late and shouldn’t have been, but still raced fine in a start off 12 days. Now off three weeks, but Kennedy took him over my top choice. That decision means this horse could be fit to win. (4) Mighty Fine Hi Ho was driven like he was going to be good in a well meant mile, but made a very costly break when taking the lead to the midway point of the final turn. He can win with his best. If you’re looking to spread, (3) Leadmeastray needed a class drop and gets it — figures with his best. (2) Sterling Chris steps up, but gets Wiseman; factor with best.

Race 7: (3) Little Anna Mae was blocked to the wire under a hold with contained pace. Was not completely free until the last sixteenth the previous and came on. Was pushed back the start before that. Cisco took her over (6) Hannah Hannah, who his wife trains. Freshman filly can beat these with a trouble free mile. (1) Twentyone Guns sat in the winner’s pocket until just before the three-quarters, found her best foot late. Young filly can also defeat these. (7) Whistle Britches added Go-Straight knee-spreaders and was used three times in a good trying and improved mile while driven like he was good. Gets Wiseman and his choice, but this pacer isn’t big on passing, hence being 0-31, but still should be considered. Maybe take a look at (2) Drawing Dead who made an undectable mild rally while not driven after getting pushed back in her first career start.

Race 8: (1) Dreaming Of Amy stayed behind a foe with plenty of room up the pylons and trotted through the wire into a fast final quarter. Has won this meet in 1:58.4 and now drops to the level of her last win and gets Kennedy. May go down the road at a price. (5) Carpathian Hooray was overmatched in a start off two weeks and a scratch. Pretty big drop and has beaten better than these at Pocono. Has no excuses here, but don’t fall in love with him. (2) Winsom Kelly made a very costly break in his last. Closed fast in his previous once free with a sixteenth to go. Drops and can win with a flat mile. (4) Style Element never gave way on a closer’s bias. Off two weeks, but also-eligible on 11/3. Has a shot for the leading trainer.

Race 9: (2) Double Dakota was first-over the last 9-16ths of a mile and was a very nice winner as much the best. Drew inside, Plano’s choice and can easily repeat off his last. (7) Serious Art closed and won nicely in an ametuer driving race, but against an up-front and inside bias in a mile in the slop that adjusts to 1:54.4. Steps up, but has won in this class. Can outclose in a race with speed to help. Players in this race include (4) Dugout Andee who was involved in a quick quarter (no help) in the night’s fastest mile. Cisco’s choice and is a player with his best and no duel. (6) Larry Horse raced against a strong closer’s bias. (8) Roger J beat easier like he was supposed to. Steps back up, but follows the 7 in a race that can shape up for him. Fastest of all?

Good luck!