by Scott Ehrlich, Cal Expo announcer

Scott Ehrlich offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick-4 at Cal Expo on Nov. 17, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Cal Expo Pick-4, Races 7-10, Thursday, Nov. 17, 2011

$1 play: 47/16810/39/378 = $48

Analysis:

Race 7: (7) Spoons was a solid second versus a couldn’t lose winner in a very fast mile, plus he had been off two weeks. Drops, leaves, and can overcome his post. (4) Badger Creek was a nice third out of the same race as the above. Has more than an ordinary chance with a well-timed move. If you wish to spread, think about (1) Poor House whose :56.4 middle-half in her last did her in. Merits attention with her Nov. 3 mile. (8) Math Wiz needed her last. Is a factor with needed position from the eight hole. (2) Racetrack Diva gets Maier and that makes her a player.

Race 8: (6) Betty Elizabeth closed nicely and did fine into a fast final quarter from a no chance spot while the top two sat inside and gets an excuse. There’s speed in here to enhance her chances and she can outclose this field. (10) Winsom Kelly followed the winner, was free with a 16th to go and was no-match. Has no fear of a qualifier tonight. Note that he starts in the second tier, consider. (1) Flea Flicker beat state-bred fillies, but was off two weeks. Faces the boys, but may get a three hole trip and can repeat. (8) Claim Jumper tried her best to fight off the pocket one while easily second-best. She’ll be in the thick of the battle if she doesn’t duel. If you want to spread to one more horse, look at (9) Style Element, who easily could have cost herself second in her last when she broke and the break may not have been her fault.

Race 9: (3) Joe The Jet Closed nicely in a needed mile while the 1-2 winner dug in late. Oldest horse in the race can outclose these. (9) Vantage closed and raced fine into a fast final quarter while the top two sat 1-3 on the inside, but didn’t beat the first-over 8 in a very slow mile. She must leave for a good early spot to overcome her draw. Other players include (6) Hi Princess Deara who devoured ground and was hardly urged. Should be given thought here, but everything time wise about the win was slow, and she could be a bet-against. (2) Diamond Player was better than even off the class drop. Is a player here. (8) Hey Scoob comes out of the 9’s race, was first-over the last three-eighths and closed/raced fine in a needed mile. Gets Svendsen and his choice over the 2. Can finish higher.

Race 10: (3) Roger J had excess cover, was brushing four-wide at the three-quarters and looked loaded when there was confusion which caused him to step on a wheel and make an interference break — and he had a chance to win — ouch! Edge in a toughie. (8) Little Box Out left, took back, was first-over and a trip that isn’t him took its toll, excuse. Takes an important drop out of the tough six claimers that he has beaten, can leave and overcome his draw. (7) Mighty Fine Hi Ho gained at the seven-eighths, then was checked with a little more than a 16th to go with no room ahead, was free with a 16th left and came on, but the 5 dug in. Gets Maier and he does well with him, give them attention! Other horses to consider are (5) Sterling Chris who wouldn’t be denied off a perfect trip. (4) Fork In The Road steps up in class off the claim, but for a sharp trainer.

Good luck!