by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick-4 at Cal Expo on April 28, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Cal Expo Pick 4, Races 6-9, Thursday, April 28, 2011

The play: 12/345/56/1 = $12

Analysis:

We’ve been joking around the AH headquarters lately that our Pick 4s ought to be called Pick 2s. But that’s not going to stop us from trying to hit our first of the season and launching a winning streak to end all winning streaks. Although, in this case, it would be a winning streak to begin all winning streaks. But let’s not quibble.

On Thursday night, Cal Expo has a Pick 4 (races 6-9) with a $10,000 guaranteed pool and a reduced 15 percent takeout. Let’s have at it!

Sixth Race: So, Paul The Powerful, we meet again! Back on April 21 the AH picked Paul The Powerful as one of his two choices in a Pick 4 race only to see him fade to fifth. This week Paul (2-1) pulls a better post, moving from the eight to the one. Interestingly, the five has been the hottest post at Cal Expo all season long by a statistically significant margin. Can Paul rebound from a disappointing fifth (though by only three lengths) and win? Yes, maybe.

But the AH really likes Little Box Out (4-1) to win the race, and not only because the AH was a slow, medium-height, non-jumping basketball player who relied heavily on the aforementioned “box out” to earn his keep in pick-up games until injuries sidelined him for good. But seriously, Little Box Out has some real value, dropping down from $3,900 to $2,300 and getting a driver change to Tim Maier. The company at $2,300 should be more benign.

Bet: 1, 2

Seventh Race: Wish we could find value in any of the pacers here except the chalk, but it’s hard to imagine any of the long shots beating either Heartbrake Ridge (8-5) or Achy Breaky Art (7-2). The latter was in first after the half in a $15,000 sire stake before being asked for a little too much and breaking to finish fourth, 12 lengths back. The 3-year-old gelding was coming off back-to-back wins including a lifetime best 1:56.4 on April 15. Not sure why Heartbrake Ridge is the prohibitive favorite after a lackluster stretch of five races finishing no better than fourth and no closer than five lengths, though if he is ready to break out of his slump he’s recorded a 1:56.1 at Cal Expo and an even more impressive 1:55.1 in a runner-up effort.

Math Wiz (6-1) is a wild card having won his only lifetime start on April 21 in 1:59.2. But that race was more impressive than it seems: Math Wiz came out of the nine hole and fell a whopping 19 lengths off the pace before roaring up (double parked no less) to pass the field and win going away. He’s a stout closer with admirable final quarters in both of his qualifying races and his lone victory.

Bet: 3, 4, 5

Eighth race: This should be a stampede. Irish Whiskey (2-1) draws the enviable five post and should be a strong drink here. Boo Coo Blush (9-2) has already finished ahead of Irish Whiskey twice this year including a race on April 14. However, his post (seven) will probably have him on the outside looking in. Franky Provolone (5-2) is coming off a disappointing seventh, a race he led at every call before fading down the stretch. But the 4-year-old gelding was game in his two previous tries, a place and a win. In both races, he came from off the pace without cover to get into the money.

Bet: 5, 6

Ninth race: Shoot The Works (2-1) has the most impressive resume of any horse in the Pick 4. In his last 12 races he’s finished no worse than fourth (three times) and has three wins, four places and two shows. He gives us the luxury of picking only one horse this race.

Bet: 1