by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $5,000 guaranteed Pick-4 at Tioga Downs on August 1, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Tioga Downs Pick-4, Races 2-5, Monday, August 1, 2011

Jump on board people, there’s plenty of room on the bandwagon! We finally hit a Pick-4 yesterday at Harrah’s Chester for a mildly exciting $151.60. Not too shabby for a Holiday Inn, as the saying goes. Handicapped most of the races well, including two exactas and a trifecta if one was inclined to bet all the horses I had on my card.

Onward!

$1 play 2/210/346/45910 = $24

Analysis:

Race 2: Today is an exciting day at Tioga Downs, what with its hosting of the World Driving Championship. Corey Callahan is representing the United States and his bay mare (2) Curly Top is the morning line favorite here at 3-1. Notwithstanding a break in her last outing, she’s been consistently a second or two faster than the rest, albeit in a bunch of fifths and eighths and also rans. The early speed in this trot is on the outside, which does not bode well for the (9) and (10) horses, who will have to make up a lot of ground and likely be parked at least one wide doing it. Bjorn Goop will drive (1) Polar Rail and should be there at the end.

Race 3: (2) Prince Polaris has had the most and best success in this field, at least of late. Two of four victories in a month including a lifetime best 1:53.3 on June 5 though at a lower class. (4) Whole Lotta Wow is the fastest pacer in the group on a good day, but the 6-year-old gelding hasn’t had a good day (a win, that is) since the winter and is only 1 in 20 starts this year. Capable? Yes. Likely, not so much. (10) Savannah Scion would easily be the favorite here were it not for the disadvantageous post. Last three outings were show, place and win (respectively), all in under 1:55. Can’t leave him off the ticket.

Race 4: (3) Smooth Power was lights out (seven straight races in the money including four victories) until three bumpy outings in June and July. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the break on June 1 was a fluke and that the lackluster return on June 29 was on account of nearly a month off. His July 9 win at Tioga was more like it, never mind the glacial pace of 1:57. He prepped for this race at the Big M by turning in a 1:54.3 and closing to sixth. (4) Karpathos jumps from $5,500 to $10,000 here after winning six of nine races including his last two in 1:56.3 and 1:56.4. Not in the same class as Smooth Power but racing well lately and should challenge. (6) Double A Gloria is a lot like Karpathos, a trotter who has had recent success at a lower class ($3,465) and is now making the jump to $10,000. First try at $10,000 was a successful show finish in 1:55.3. She seems, however, as happy to finish third or fourth as she is to finish first. Are her two recent wins a trend or an aberration? (7) Three straight for Prize Angie but this is one wildly inconsistent trotter. She has speed ratings of 18 and 23 in her not-too-distant past to go along with a 78 and an 86.

Race 5: (9) True Desire has a tough post but drops the furthest in class here from $27,000 to $10,000. The 7-year-old gelding hasn’t won since mid-June and that was in 2:01.4. Simply unimpressive of late. (10) I’m In Luck will need plenty of it if he’s to pull out a win here. Three of last four have been in the money and sub-1:55 including an awesome six length win in 1:52.3 on July 2. (8) A Rockin Hanover has a win in 1:51.3 this season but lately has been mediocre. Will need to be at his best to hang around. Don’t really like the (4) Major Work Of Art or the (5) Kiss My Cam but do love their post positions.