by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $5,000 guaranteed Pick-4 at Harrah’s Chester on July 31, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Harrah’s Chester Pick-4, Races 7-10, Sunday, July 31, 2011

Last week was all chalk and we hit three of four races. Should have picked the fourth by adding one more chalker, We Will See in the $70,000 Open Handicap. Had we done that, we would have come home with $54.20 on a $2 bet. As the gambling gods say, it beats losing.

$1 play: 1/3568/145/13 = $24

Analysis:

Race 7: Hard to imagine a scenario where (1) Ideal Matters isn’t at the top of the board in this $30,000 race for non-winners of $25,000 in five races. Then again, Ideal Matters is in eenie meenie miney moe mode of late. In his last four races the 4-year-old son of Western Ideal-Art Matters-Artsplace has finished seventh, first, seventh and third. Which horse will show up today? The seventh place finish on July 3 is understandable if only because Ideal Matters paced a sub-1:50 in the final of the Ben Franklin Pace. He dominated at this class on July 16 before poking his head up in a $70,000 race where he was promptly whacked again. (7) Hypnotist is the best of the rest though he suffers from a difficult post. (3) Touch The Rock is off form of late (his last two are a seventh and an eighth place finish). Let’s single Ideal Matters.

Race 8: This one makes it interesting. A 2-year-old maiden race for colts and geldings, PA sire “preferred.” (8) All Week is the prohibitive favorite at 5-2 but heaven only knows how the colt (I Am a Fool-Delta Shuttle-Cam’s Card Shark) will perform from such a disadvantageous post. (3) Hillbilly Hanover is a must play and (5) D Mac has improved in every race he’s been in this year. (6) Jedi Hanover may have the force with him, too. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the winner of this race shaves three, four or even five seconds off his lifetime best.

Race 9: (1) Western Shore has a lot bests in race stats going for him: best lifetime mark (1:48.3); best season mark (1:49); most lifetime earnings: ($1.1 million). And he’s the 5-2 morning line favorite. (6) New Release was next to unbeatable April through June but has run into difficulties at this high class ($36,500 up from $24,000). (2) Schoolkids has been wildly inconsistent of late but certainly has the capability of a winning effort. Ditto (4) Cinderella Guy, who has been more stout recently than Schoolkids. (5) Dial Or No Dial has won twice at this level before being beaten up at higher classes.

Race 10: (3) Bluehurst benefits from a benign post but has been awful of late — a pair of eighth place finishes including a break in his last. Should rebound here but too risky to single. (1) Western Posse is coming off a place last week and should get a clean trip here. The most lightly paced horse in the field.