by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $5,000 Pick-4 at Hoosier Park on June 15, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Hoosier Park Pick-4, Races 3-6, Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Last week we picked two winners (including our lone single) but never had a shot at the Pick-4 as a longshot hit in the first race. Of the two winners, Mark’s Way was our no-brainer single and he paid $3.20 to win if you had him on a ticket separate from the Pick-4. We also nailed the sixth and final race in the Pick-4, betting that Eagle Flight would soar. The pacer paid $8.80 to win. Let’s see if we can hone our game a bit this time around.

$1 play: 348/7/4689/1910 = $36

Analysis:

Race 3: (4) Perfectly Royal has a significant class advantage over the field here and is the morning line place bet at 3-1. The bay mare is coming off two wins at Scioto Downs but was scratched from what would have been her first race at Hoosier Park on June 7. So, questions abound. (3) Just a Glimpse won $37,500 in a show finish at the Kentucky Sire Stakes final for 2-year-olds last September at Lexington. But she’s a maiden with only three lifetime starts. Not much of a track record to base a wager on. (8) Shez All Halo is like the little girl who, when she’s good, is very very good (a win and a place in three starts) but when she’s bad, she’s very very bad (a late break and a 10-length loss). None of the favorites are proven enough or consistent enough (yet) to put out there as a single.

Race 4: (7) Pure Super is coming off a $45,600 stakes race in which she finished a respectable fourth, having come from well off the pace and being parked on the backside. She won 7 of 14 races as a 2-year-old and placed in three others. She is the class of this $5,500 race. (2) Bar Girl is the best of the rest.

Race 5: There are five legitimate contenders in this $11,500 pace. (4) Ar Ed is coming off back-to-back wins and four solid outings in a row dating back to May 11. (9) Bull Lea has a last three average speed rating higher than today’s class rating. Not to mention the gelding’s eight wins and four places in 14 races this year! (8) Stamped By Design is trained by Trace Tetrick and has an intriguing 1:53.2 win to his name at Balmoral Park this year. He was third to Ar Ed and Bull Lea last time out after making a heroic charge from 13 lengths off the lead to finish a length and a half back. With any racing luck, he should be in the mix again. (6) Tugboat won on May 25 in a season’s best 1:52.4 but has also been awful lately in finishing three of his last four in ninth, tenth and eighth. Which Tugboat will show up tonight? (5) Really Showing Off is also capable, entering the race off back-to-back wins in lower classes. Can he continue to climb? His most recent speed ratings suggest this might be the gelding’s class too far.

Race 6: (10) B Strike Three is our favorite to win this $17,000 trot. He has the highest winning percentage of any trotter in the field and season and lifetime best times significantly better than any of his race mates. Just to give you an example, our second choice, (9) Jeffie T has a season best 1:58.3. B Strike Three has raced in 1:55.1, albeit at Dover Downs. B Strike Three would have won for the first time this year at Hoosier Park were it not for an unfortunate break down the homestretch and a DQ from first to seventh. Despite that recent mishap, B Strike Three is considered a “low” risk of going off stride. There is no true speed in this race, so both B Strike Three and Jeffie T should be able to settle behind and in front of the trotters of their choosing. Watch for a fast and furious finish, as Jeffie T has an insane closing speed rating of 99! Will B Strike Three have enough of a cushion to withstand Jeffie T’s late charge down Hoosier Park’s endless home stretch? We’ll see. (1) D W’s Perky Joe has been fair to midland the last two and half months but his early season victories and steady trotting should stand him in good stead here.