by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick 4 at Cal Expo Raceway on May 12, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Cal Expo Raceway Pick 4, Races 6-9, Thursday, May 12, 2011

$1 play: 47/45/2/679 = $12

Analysis:

Race 6: Letter Of Intent (post four, 5-2), our nemesis in recent weeks, returns in the first leg of the Pick 4 after dropping in class from $2,500 to $1,800 and drawing the enviable four post. Her back-to-back second place finishes should turn into a first here, but not without a stern challenge from another mare dropping down in class. Miss In Love (post seven, 2-1) is making the same drop though will be racing from the difficult seven post. In her last race, Miss In Love fired out from the six hole to the lead and went wire-to-wire. She’s capable of the same here.

Race 7: Paul The Powerful (post one, 5-2) should provide the early speed and could go wire-to-wire in this $2,300 pace. He came up just short for us last week after fighting gamely down the stretch to finish third behind Little Box Out (post five, 9-2) and Wrangler Reward (post six, 5-1). Shoot The Works (post four, 2-1) is the prohibitive favorite though the Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards Little Box Out.

Race 8: Meringue (post six, 6-5) is the class of this field but draws the mildly unfavorable six post. Last trip out was uninspiring and in fact this entire season has been a disappointment for the winner of 24 lifetime. Of the also-rans, Say It Best (post two, 9-5) is the best (though lightly raced this season) and should benefit from his drop in class two races back. The hottest horse, Bobby Baccala (post seven, 6-1) had the worst luck at the draw and is coming up the most (from $2,000 to $3,200).

Race 9: King Carver (post six, 8-5) has been perfect in 2011 unless you count his last race, which he won but was DQ’d to place. Let’s look for some value here with Badger Creek (post four, 5-1), who is coming off a win in 1:59.2 after a string of disasters, and with Mid Night Flyer (post nine, 12-1), who should get a shot from behind the one horse.