Peter’s Picks – September 28, 2005
September 28, 2005,by Peter Kleinhans for the USTA
Each day during the Lexington Grand Circuit meet, we’ll present Peter’s Picks, analysis and selections on a feature race at The Red Mile by Peter Kleinhans, a widely-respected handicapper and announcer. In addition to his handicapping and announcing expertise, Kleinhans is an experienced trainer and driver and thus offers a unique perspective on racing.
There is no less predictable division in harness racing than the two-year-old filly trotting division. These greenhorn girls are highly-prone to making breaks, and their form can often vary greatly from race to race.
Nevertheless, these races often offer betting value to fans willing to deal with their inevitable chaos. In today’s 10th race at The Red Mile, a division of the Bluegrass Series for two-year-old filly trotters, an interesting betting possibility presents itself.
(2) MACARIA HANOVER is the selection here. A daughter of Lindy Lane, Macaria Hanover qualified twice at The Meadowlands, showing ability in both efforts, winning the second with a :28.2 final quarter. Her first pari-mutuel event came in a Pennsylvania Sires Stakes in which she again proved victorious, vaulting out of the two-hole pocket enroute to a handy 2:00 score, this time trotting a last kicker in 28.1 over a sloppy track at The Meadows. Some handicappers don’t care a whit about time when it comes to young horses, but the reality is that clockings can be extremely powerful tools when handled properly. What makes Macaria Hanover’s performance so impressive is that there were three other divisions of the PASS held on the same day- divisions trotted in 2:01.1, 2:01.3, and 2:01.4. Moreover, those races featured more evenly-rated fractions- which should have led to faster final times. Clearly Macaria is a filly with loads of ability. She then shipped to the Red Mile for her local debut, where she promptly made a break behind the starting gate.
Today, Macaria draws well and faces an experienced but suspect group of fillies. She could break, of course. But her price may be more than fair against a field that features a $200,000 winner and several other flashy-looking contenders.
(5) CR ZOE FAITH has had some brutal trips and has lived to tell about it. But with The Red Mile favoring closers these days, the aggressive driving style of Rod Allen may not be what the doctor ordered here. The CR Commando filly is unquestionably fast, but she’ll need a more patient journey to win today.
(7) NORTHERN POSSESSION has shown flashes of ability herself, although she has yet to hit the board in three starts. In the Champlain at Mohawk, she went to the top at the quarter before making a break and dropping back to seventh at the three-quarters. But she did trot home nicely, flashing a :28.3 quarter and closing for fourth. She will be a huge price here and could add value to the exotics.
(1) GLUTEUS MAXIMUS is the likely favorite, never off the board and only eight-hundred dollars short of the $200,000 mark in seasonal earnings. But her money has been earned primarily over half-mile tracks, where her early speed and Ray Schnittker’s aggressive style are at their most effective. The Credit Winner filly obviously has talent, but is a beatable favorite- and that’s exactly what you’re looking for in two-year-old trotting events.