by Bob Carson

Editor’s Note: The USTA website is pleased to present freelance writer Bob Carson and his popular “Outside the Box” features. This monthly series is a menu of outlandish proposals presented with a wink — but the purpose behind them is serious. The views contained in this column are that of the author alone, and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of the United States Trotting Association.

“Fear of failure must never be a reason not to try.” — Fredrick Smith

“There are two great pleasures in gambling; winning and losing.” — French Proverb

Bob Carson

This plan to energize harness racing has monopolized my thoughts for several months. A fixation like this on a niche sport is possibly laudable but probably alarming. Either way, I can’t help myself. The final plan, which I will now unveil, passes a critical test — it would entice me to drive to a racetrack and play, which is something I have found myself doing less often these days. And I am not alone.

People are not wagering at the old ovals like they used to. We know there are reasons. Among them are draconian takeouts on winning pari-mutuel wagers for veteran players and complexity for novices. This new plan tackles these twin towers of trouble that have held us back.

The take-out problem for serious handicappers is complicated by a dwindling supply of stupid money in the wagering pools. No longer are 10,000 people at the racetrack and half of those are plunking down wagers because they like the name or the color of a horse. Both on track and off-track, we have distilled the wagering public to a very shrewd sliver of sharpies.

Compared to other gambling activities, the takeout on each winning dollar in horse racing is a shocker. We know there are reasons for the take-out; the government wants their cut, the racetrack has overhead, it costs money to put on our shows, and horsemen need purses. Nobody, in good times or bad, will embrace the idea of giving back money. It is going to be difficult to get this take-out monkey off our backs, but this plan might be a method of disguising the beast.

Any rookie that somehow suddenly wakes up one morning and decides to take up wagering on harness racing (and these rookies are as rare as a good hair day for Donald Trump) will face a complex sport and a long learning curve. Mastering and appreciating our sport simply takes more time and effort than young Americans are willing to spend. Our complexity, which thrills serious handicappers, is a barrier to casual visitors to the racetrack. For new players, the racing program may as well be printed in Farsi. Simply interpreting the numbers on a tote board presents a challenge they are loath to accept. Maybe later, much later, the intricacies of unraveling a horse race will fascinate new fans. Maybe later, much later, they will graduate to a real program and reasoned wagering. But for new players looking at our old sport, there is no reason to be more complicated than your customers will tolerate.

It is a given that before implementation of this experiment, or any experiment to lure new people into our sport, our physical environment must take a lesson from casinos. Attention must be paid to the sights, sounds, smells, signals, and sensations of any new grandstands or clubhouse. Once the property is presentable, the new plan takes very little additional retrofitting.

For those of you who like pari-mutuel wagering on harness racing just as it is…no problem. Keep gambling on the race programs as usual and pay absolutely no attention to what is going on at the racetrack. This peculiar wagering paradigm is another game, an add-on, an experimental use for empty grandstands, a strange idea that will not hurt you, and it could help you.

Put yourself in the shoes of a newbie. You do not know a trotter from a triceratops. Recently, probably via social networking, you have heard about a new game in town; it takes place at the harness horse racetrack. You and a few friends decide to investigate.

Autumn Ryan graphic

You enter the racetrack and like the appearance and the vibe. The horses are awesome. You watch a few horses with numbers and straps pulling sulkies. You know they will soon be racing. You decide to make a wager because you have heard it is very simple and can be very exciting. Tentatively, you stroll up to a betting window and say to the teller that, “You want to take a shot.”

There is only one type of wager at this racetrack and it is called a SHOT wager (Success Happens On Three). The cost of a single SHOT is $50. In a SHOT wager, you pick a single horse in a race and your horse must win. For new customers it is simple — one price, one wager and one horse to cheer to do one thing — win a race.

The teller asks for your number. You decide to take your SHOT on horse number 4, a horse named OffNRunning (this happens to be a 4-year-old pacing stallion in a non-winners of $15,000 lifetime, but as a new visitor you will not know or care). As you purchase your $50 ticket at the window, the simplified tote board shows that horse number 4 will pay $250. The remodeled tote board simply displays what each $50 wager will pay (no longer will we need to try to explain what 7-2 means, a concept that several of my non-racing friends with advanced college degrees cannot fathom).

You take your ticket and sit down to watch the race.

OffNRunning wins. You win $250. Because there is zero take-out, and because the minimum bet is $50, each winning payoff is surprisingly large. You get to keep it all — sort of. Because when you report to the teller, you receive a voucher for $250 that must be risked on a subsequent race.

Excitedly, you start looking for the second leg in this three legged race. You must wager with your voucher — and you must wager it all.

You squirm for awhile, and then decide to wager your $250 voucher on horse number 2, a smallish black horse, who goes by the name of SkipABeat. The streamlined tote board shows horse number 2 will pay $500 per $50 wager (In the old days we called this 10-1).

SkipABeat wins. Once again you win a voucher, this time for $2,500. Once again, there is zero take-out.

At this point you are holding a very large voucher that must be wagered during the remainder of this program. Think you would be a tad excited at this point?

So here you sit, heart pounding, with a single bet remaining on your SHOT, a bet that is larger than you ever wagered in your life. A wager of this amount is one that most of us would never consider making. But you must! If you are with friends they will be near convulsive. You will be texting, tweeting and phoning like a lunatic. One horse race stands between you and serious money. The excitement and the potential payoffs are extraordinary. The need to make that final voucher wager, in a limited amount of time, would change the atmosphere at the racetrack to a crackling, frantic, panicky rush.

You inhale deeply, steady yourself and make your third, and final, choice. With trembling hand, you trade your $2,500 voucher for a ticket on the favorite in the next race, a horse named LetItRide. You can hardly bear to watch this single race, a race where your original $50 will result in a $10,000 payoff.

LetItRide wins.

After you are revived, you have the final voucher still clasped in your clammy hands. Friends lead you to the teller for your payoff. This time, the payoff is real money.

Lost in your ecstasy is the fact that your final payoff is not exempt from the standard take-out. The racetrack, government and various entities will take a rather hefty chunk out of your $10,000. They still get their cut. They always do.

So what changes? How is this different from a Pick Three or traditional parlay?

It is quite a bit different. The step-by-step voucher system affects the psychology of the bettor. The atmosphere would change. Here are some reasons why.

• Drama. The need to complete your SHOT wager, your parlay, in the course of the evening program creates tension. Tension and drama are terrific human motivators. This is the same escalating choice principle that drives many television game shows, fake reality shows and casino games.

• While the pari-mutuel concept is still in play, it is made simpler. This is a quazi-pari-mutuel wager. Betting is affected by the odds, but the simple display gives non-handicappers some basic clues…it will not take them long to discover that the larger the payout, the less likely the horse will win. The rawest rookie will eventually figure that a $50 bet that shows only a $100 payoff is statistically the most likely to win according to the experts that set the morning line. This is handicapping 101.

• Psychologically, the take-out is mitigated. If you win a substantial amount of money, the niggling fact that you don’t get to keep it all tends to get lost. You don’t hear many lottery winners grumbling about paying taxes. They are in a heady euphoria that makes the reduced total less significant. The take-out would be less odious.

• Illusion. The vouchers will leave the bettor with the sensation they are receiving more money than a traditional payout (often near 30 percent more). This increase in money ratchets up drama. Running around with one of these live vouchers gives the illusion that you have this money.

• Business as usual. The takeout, the life blood for many in the game, is not diminished to the parties that depend on it. In the example above, the usual suspects get their money out of the $10,000 ticket, instead of chipping away at a mountain of small wagers.

• Intelligence still has an edge. Old-timers would have a brand new paradigm in their wagering. This parlay, where the first two wagers are take-out free, opens the handicapping game to an infinite realm of possibilities. Also, for those betting this program off-track, where the odds vary and reason rules, more money would be in the pools.

• Psychologically, a wager like this leads people to the cliff and forces them to jump off. This “near miss” concept is very, very important in repetitive gambling like slot machines. Plus, the “clock is ticking.” You must get the second and third legs down before the end of the program. This time pressure is another wonderful motivator.

• Big money. This rather pricey wager (the only increments are $50) would encourage people to pool money. This would add to the social aspect. Say for example, three girls each chip in about $16 dollars and decide that each will pick one of the races. That would be a lot of fun for a little money. You lose the race, you start again with another SHOT wager.

• Promotional gold. The payoffs would be large. Occasionally the payoffs would be huge. No longer nickels and dimes. These wins could, would and should be trumpeted.

• Smart money (veteran handicappers) and stupid money (newcomers) would have a much more even playing field. Smart players still have the advantage but new players have a fighting chance. Programs would be available on several levels — complex programs and very simplified programs.

• The simplicity of the wager (your horse wins or loses) combined with the mounting tension would be attractive. This would offer racetracks a whole new ballgame to advertise. “Come on down, try this new betting system.” It would be a fresh start promotion-wise for a race track.

• Concession sales which are a hugely important revenue stream. The relatively expensive wager will encourage groups. This will lead to groups that share (say five people that that pony up ten bucks per SHOT). Groups mean more players in the building, people in the building causing more of a buzz, changing our rather insular game to a more social environment.

• Investment would be minimal. This is one of those business plans with a big upside and virtually no downside. What’s the worst case scenario?

• Everyone in the facility would be in quest of the same goal — pick three winners in a row. This sounds diabolically simple. Three in a row for serious money. Even I almost pulled off picking three consecutive winners in 2002.

In my delusional world I can see plenty of other benefits for both new and old players in a SHOT wager based racetrack. One of them is personal. A parlay has always struck me as a terrific wager — if you have the courage. Every time I sit down intending to use the parlay system, I crumble like a cookie under a sledgehammer after the second wager. If you take a SHOT, if it is the only play, you have to see it through. You have to face the drama and tension. You have to face big losses and big wins.

You have a new reason to visit an old sport.