by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $10,000 guaranteed Pick-4 at Maywood Park on Dec. 2, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Maywood Park Pick 4, Races 11-14, Dec. 2, 2011

$1 play: 35/2/13/256 = $12

Analysis:

Race 11: (5) Dontgetbyme is, understandably, the early morning favorite at 9-5. The 6-year-old black gelding by Dontgetinmyway out of Quest For Truth has finished in the money in 19 of 32 races this year including a season’s best 1:51.4. His win on Nov. 4 was in 1:53.2 with a speed rating of 92. The horse just never has a bad race. But it won’t be easy. (1) Ice Man Comet’h has two wins and two places in his last five, albeit in slower times (1:55/1:56) than he’ll need to win here. And coming from the six post won’t help matters as he’s notoriously slow out of the gate. (2) Seawind Gambler had a short holiday at $12,500 before heading back in class here to $10,000. Four wins in his last 12 but inconsistent. (3) Fox Valley Griffin has a 1:51.1 to his name this season and a 1:52 at Indy as recently as Oct. 29.

Race 12: (2) Desert Flower is the closest thing to a single we’re likely to get. The filly was knocked around at higher levels but drops to $7,500 and has a win in 1:53.2 as recently as Oct. 2. Would like to see better recent form, but in this group that may not matter. (1) Challenge My Heart is the next best on the board at 4-1 but is jumping up in class from $4,000. Didn’t fare well at this level in her first try. (5) Blazing Fury hasn’t won in so long it’s hard to figure why he’s at 5-2 in the morning line. He has hit the board in 16 of 29 races (though with only four wins). But he’s spent most of the last four months hanging with the big boys (at anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000) and should benefit from a significant drop in class.

Race 13: Wanna bet the field? Cuz this $3,500 is wide open! (1) Bauer’s Z Tam, the 2-1 morning line fav, hasn’t won since the beginning of August. (3) Smoken Cambest is second favorite off a nice qualifying win on Nov. 25, but it’s a smokin’ win at Lexington on Sept. 11 in 1:54.3 that caught our eye. Really, a two-horse race barring a Twilight Zone occurrence.

Race 14: (2) Race Track Stormy has every opportunity here and is a good value at 3-1 or better. But this is another race (for $3,800) that could be a single or a field, depending on your druthers. At this level, Race Track Stormy won in 1:53.2 back in August. But the 3-year-old gelding has eased off that torrid pace lately and settled for times in the mid-1:50s. For this group, that’s still stout. (6) George’s Ztam has only won once this year and not since the summer solstice. His best second place finish is 1:54 in his last 12. But he’s won more money per start than any other horse in the race. Look, if Race Track Stormy comes even close to 1:53.2 this race is over before it begins. If, on the other hand, the pace is slow and the winner crosses the wire closer to 2:00, then things change. In the case of the latter scenario, then one must consider (5) Body Guard, even at 15-1. After all, the 3-year-old gelding has three recent wins between 1:55 and 1:58 and an interesting seventh finish in 1:53. Carried? Perhaps.