Eichenberger’s Picks: April 14 CalX
April 14, 2011,by Bill Eichenberger
Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick 4 at Cal-Expo on April 14, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.
Cal-Expo Pick 4, Thursday, April 14, 2011
$1 Pick 4 — Races 6 through 9
6, 10 with 5, 6 with 2, 6, 8 with 3, 7.
On Thursday, the Cal Expo’s Late Pick 4 (races 6, 7, 8 and 9) will feature a guaranteed pot of at least $10,000 and a reduced track takeout of 15%. So the Amateur Handicapper is going to do his best to come up with four winners so he can take you all out for a steak dinner. … OK, so he can take his significant other out for a steak dinner. But you know he would if he could.
The sixth race includes 10 entries and I took the added measure — from my distant perch in central Ohio — to request from track officials their “winning post position” statistics from this year and their three previous programs.
I asked because the 2-1 favorite in the sixth race, Claim Jumper, is coming out of the 10 hole. In her four races this year, the bay filly has won three times, but her wins have come from the 3 post once the 2 post twice. In other words, she has had the luck of the draw in 2011.
And what did those winning post position stats tell us? For one, Cal Expo doesn’t often have fields of 10 horses. And when they do, horses in the 10 hole finish in the money between 25% and 33% of the time. And that’s just “in the money,” not wins. So, Claim Jumper has her work cut out for her.
Interestingly, the post position that produced the most winners was not any of the inside posts 1 through 4; rather, the 5 post has produced the most winners at Cal Expo by a margin wide enough to catch my eye. We don’t see a significant statistical drop in wins, in fact, until we get to the 8, 9 and 10 posts.
Alas, sometimes a field is weak enough (and this is, after all, a $2,700 race) that even the most fascinating of stats can be thrown out the window. The class of the race remains Claim Jumper, with Final Chapter in the six hole at 3-1 odds an attractive alternative. I’m going to have 10 and 6 on my Pick 4 card for the sixth race.
But my post position research (not to rely too heavily on any one aspect of handicapping) may prove fruitful in the seventh race, a wide open $2,900 claiming affair. The 2-1 favorite is Misdori but she’s coming up in class (from $2,300 to $2,900) and off a lackluster sixth place finish on April 7 in which she “gave way late.” (If I had a dollar for every wager I’d made on a horse who “gave way late” I’d be a rich man!)
Which brings me to Scooter Babe (7-2) who not only will benefit from having outstanding Cal Expo driver Steve Wiseman in the sulky, but also starts from the holy 5 hole! Scooter Babe has yet to win in 9 races this year but has dropped recently in class (from $3,400) and fought gamely on April 7 to reduce a 9-length deficit to 3 at the close despite “bad cover.”
Persuade Me is also interesting coming from the 6 post and driven by another top Cal Expo reinsman, Lemoyne Svendsen.
Bet the 5 and 6 horses in the seventh.
The eighth race is another wide open affair. I realize I haven’t located any longshots as of yet, but sometimes you have to work the race card you’re dealt! And I’m not seeing any of the outsiders giving me a reason to plunk down money on them.
Hope Tu Place is the 2-1 favorite. She has an enviable post (2) and is off to a good start this year, finishing in the money in half of her 14 starts. But I think Bettor Approval (5-2) is the better mare here coming from the 6 post. The other mare I’m pondering is Bit O Lavec at 12-1 from the 8 post. The 6YO brown won 8 races last year in 46 tries and finished in the money 26 times. She was game in her last race going four wide and losing by a length in 2:01.
The Amateur Handicapper is leaning towards the 6 and 8 horses in the eighth race but can’t find it in his heart (or mind) to leave the 2 out of the picture.
Which brings us to the ninth race, another $2,700 claimer which may provide us with our best shot and picking a horse with longer odds. The morning line heavily favors Fakeutu Bluegrass at 2-1 and with good reason. The horse averaged $1,164 per race in earnings last year, almost twice as much as her nearest competitor. She should be in any Pick 4.
But let’s take a look at Double L Jammer, listed in the morning line at 8-1. He’s done most of his racing at Alberta Downs but shipped to Cal Expo this winter. He was lackluster in his first seven tries, placing only once and earning a paltry $1,161 in 2011 thus far. As a consequence, he’s likely to be bid down and pay a decent price. But he was in the money 9 times last year in 29 starts — in more accomplished company than he finds himself here. (He averaged $726 per start despite winning only three time in 2010.) He should benefit from a driver change to Scott Cisco and Double L Jammer has proven himself capable of pacing at 1:57 or 1:58, which should put him right in the mix.
Gutsy Winds Ahead (12-1) is also compelling at the right price. He’s won twice this year at $2,200 and $2,400 but has yet to race well at $2,700. He was a vet’s scratch on April 8 due to injury. So the risk is high. A big number on the tote would entice the Amateur Handicapper, but as things stand we’ll leave Gutsy Winds Ahead out of our Pick 4.