by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $5,000 guaranteed Pick-4 at the Delaware County Fair on Sept. 20, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Delaware County Fair Pick-4, Races 10-13, Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2011

A guaranteed pool of $5,000 for the Pick-4 at the Delaware County Fair.

$2 play: 5/5/15/6 = $4

Race 10: Gotta love a 10-year-old mare with 210 races to her name and 98 of those in the money. That’s (1) Bigaffairintown, a steady pacer at around 2:00 a mile, give or take a second or so. But you’ve also gotta love a 5-year-old gal who has made as much cash ($56,000) as Bigaffairintown in half the time, and with a lifetime best of 1:53.2 and a 1:55.4 at the Big M only a year ago. Hard to see how (5) Decided Advantage has a decided advantage but she’s the morning line favorite at 3-1 and has paced a mile in 1:56 down the street from where I live at Scioto Downs as recently as this year. Youth or wisdom? Youth has it this time.

Race 11: Let’s all give a big hoo-ray for (3) Hooray For Valerie, the cream of this trotting crop. Eight of her last 10 races have been clocked at under 2:00, which is better most of the time than most here. (5) Should Be Aboy should be at or near the lead with Ray Paver in the sulky and has a victory in 2:00.4 at Northfield on August 5. She’s also has lifetime earnings of $50,000, which none of these girls has even sniffed.

Race 12: (1) Jessica Rayne is the 9-5 morning line favorite and with good reason. Never broke 2:00 but has won five of eight heading into this trot. (3) Lofty Jessica has a soaring kinda name, but has never gone better than 2:07 in finishing either first or second in 11 of 12 races. If she’s been holding out on us, she’s been doing it seven seconds slower than our Jessica. Much more of a legitmate threat to Jessica Rayne is (5) Rose Run Natassia. She’s only won once in five tries but she’s earned more than $26,000 and at least clocked in within a few seconds of her top rival at 2:02.3.

Race 13: The optimistically named (2) Quick Pulse is expected to go off at or near 5-2 based on the strength of four shows in her last six races. Just as capable of a 2:05 as a 1:56. (5) Badlands Kate has cycled in and out of 1:56/1:57 miles and more times at the 2:00 mark. She’s been stuck at or above 2:00 since August 8 but is capable of better. Ray Paver will be at the reins in what should be a walk with (6) Savannah Girl, who has paced sub-2:00 miles in 10 of her last 11. Hard to see how any in this field can touch her.