by Dean A. Hoffman

Dean Hoffman

Columbus, OH — Next Wednesday night at 7:00 p.m., a bay filly named Here Comes Swifty will walk into the ring at the Fasig-Tipton arena in Lexington and the auctioneer’s chant will begin. And that chant won’t stop until the last yearling is sold on Sunday afternoon.

In the interim, approximately 800 yearlings will go under the hammer as part of the Lexington Selected Yearling Sale, and there are sure to be some fireworks along the way.

The power is there. You can see it in the catalog and you’ll surely be able to see it in the spit-shined yearlings. The buyers will be there. You can’t be a serious player at the top end of the Standardbred game and miss Lexington or Harrisburg.

So the yearlings will be there and the buyers will be there, but how much money will be there? Last year more than $35 million was spent at the sale and it’s likely to be about that same total this year.

Sure, there have been some dark clouds hovering over the economy for quite some time. Corporate collapses competed with natural disasters recently to dominate the news. The American economy is said to be in the worst shape since the Great Depression. And who’s going to fix it? We have a presidential race that appears to be neck-and-neck at this stage.

The recent Keeneland sale in Lexington was termed a “predictable downturn” in The Blood-Horse magazine. But the Thoroughbred market is much different than the Standardbred market. Our best yearlings seem like their cheap yearlings.

Perhaps the best indication of the difference in the yearling markets of the two breeds is that a Thoroughbred yearling was hammered down for $7.7 million, but then it was announced that he would be listed as “Reserve Not Attained.” The consignor had placed a higher value on the colt and thus would retain him.

In 2006, 436 yearlings went through the same Keeneland sale and averaged $564,383 with a top price of $11.7 million for a yearling. The market has cooled off considerably since then, but it’s still in a different stratosphere than the Standardbred market.

How will the Lexington Selected Sale fare? Leafing through the catalog, there is certainly no shortage of yearlings from the first crop by Rocknroll Hanover. And they’re not exactly out of second-rate broodmares either. Buyers can afford to be picky and find ones they like enough to bid on, but when they start bidding they’d better have plenty of stamina. These dudes aren’t likely to go cheap.

I’m sure that Classic Photo’s first crop will get a lot of attention because he was an airy-going colt with high speed. He was second in the Hambo and 3-3 in the Kentucky Futurity, but it seemed that he won just about everything else for sophomore trotters that summer.

Both Rocknroll Hanover and Classic Photo stand in New Jersey, a program without slots, but when you buy top-rung colts you’re usually swinging for the fences instead of aiming at sires stakes.

Ken Warkentin is a stallion who should get extra attention as the foals by this young Yankee Glide stallion are eligible in Ontario, a rich sires stakes program.

Pennsylvania has money from its slot revenues and that will help the youngsters from the first crop by Village Jolt sell. Of course, Village Jolt’s accomplishments on the track will help sell his offspring, too.

I’ll be fascinated to see who buys the first Kentucky-eligible crop by Valley Victor. This stallion carved out a remarkable record from mediocre mares in Illinois, and now he’s been showered with quality mares. Will he be the next Garland Lobell or Striking Sahbra, a stallion to earn a ticket to the major leagues?

A hundred yearlings are set to sell in the first session and all you need to do to find a yearling with a gold-plated pedigree is open the catalog and flip pages.

I’m reluctant to single out yearlings in this session because there are simply too many, but indulge me to mention a few that caught my fancy:

• A Cantab Hall colt, first foal of Touch Of Moni 2,1:57.1, the Valley Victory daughter of Moni Maker.
• A Rocknroll Hanover colt out of Hattie, dam of seven in 1:55 and a trio of sub-1:50 pacers. The second dam Albaquel was the dam of six winners of more than $250,000.
• A Credit Winner filly, first foal of the millionaire Muscles Yankee mare Blur.

I could go on and on, but you get the point. The quality is on every page. Some people shun the opening session, saying, “It’s too rich for my blood that night.” Assuredly, however, there will be some soft spots, some inexplicable bargains on the first night. And yet there is no guarantee that the yearlings sold in subsequent sessions won’t wind up being the stars on the track.

How much will the disarray in the economy affect this sale? We can only sit and wait for the prices. Some earlier sales haven’t been very encouraging, but the recent sale of New York Sires Stakes prospects at Morrisville was strong. Lexington is a step up to a higher class of yearling. The bidders will deliver the verdict.

Editor’s Note: For more information on the Lexington Selected Sale, please visit their Web site at www.lexingtonselected.com/index.html.