by Bill Eichenberger

Bill Eichenberger offers his picks for the $10,000 Pick-4 at Cal Expo Raceway on May 26, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering program.

Cal Expo Raceway Pick-4, Races 6-9, Thursday, May 26, 2011

Hit the first two legs of the Pick 4 last week and got all excited. For nothing, it turned out. In Race 8 we acknowledged that Miss In Love would provide the early speed and contend down the stretch but then cavalierly predicted she would fade (again), allowing room for Mr Friendly to win it all. We singled Mr Friendly. What we didn’t count on was our lone single of the evening breaking early and then packing it in before the race ended. No mas, indeed! Oh well, live and learn. In the final leg of the Pick 4 we (along with the rest of the betting world!) dismissed Bahama Bay Bea out of hand. Our picks finished second and third, with Code Blue missing out to Bahama Bay Bea by a nose. Had we not singled Mr Friendly in the previous race, the finish in the ninth would surely have sent the Amateur Handicapper into a Code Blue of his own.

$1 play: 3/4678/3456/24 = $32

Analysis:

Race 6: Never say never in this handicapping game, but I honestly couldn’t have imagined singling a horse in a $2,400 maiden race. (Well, it’s not technically a maiden since one of the conditions is one lifetime win.)

(3) Sun on the Rocks is coming so far down in class and has paced so much faster than her competition that she is understandably the 3-5 morning line favorite. The average of her last three speed ratings is greater than today’s class rating. Last week’s driver change to Scott Cisco provided immediate benefits and a second place finish, a good prep.

Race 7: (8) Got the Giggles would be the favorite in this race had she not drawn the unenviable post eight, the toughest to win from at Cal Expo by a wide margin. Will her blazing early speed help her to overcome the (bad) luck of the draw? (4) Sleigh Belle is easily the hottest pacer in the field having won three of four including a lifetime best 1:56.2 on May 5. She’s a stalker and may well let Got the Giggles burn herself out getting to the lead. Sleigh Belle’s problem may be the abundance here of early speed. She may have to pass three or four horses in order to earn the win. Of course, that same caveat applies to Got the Giggles, who could easily find herself parked two or three wide. This is a tough one to call. Since we were able to single the sixth, let’s toss in four pacers here.

Race 8: (5) King Carver draws the most benign post at Cal Expo and is the class of the field but my, oh, my, she’s prone to go off stride. Trackmaster rates her chances of breaking “high,” which means we won’t dare put the gelding up as a single. There is no early speed in this race, which means we’re probably in for a slow stampede. Let’s include all the horses in the field who have broken a 2-minute mile this season.

Race 9: We liked (2) Dancing Barry and (4) Code Blue last week and we like them again here. (5) Moximum (a winner for us on the 19th) is probably a little out of her league in this group though a strong performance wouldn’t shock us.